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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat AZ Alkmaar 3-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.27 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.65 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.00 / defence 0.68, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 29% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 46%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 57%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights