🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Heerenveen welcome AZ Alkmaar to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 11:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Heerenveen's home record at Abe Lenstra Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.

AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, AZ Alkmaar have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Heerenveen.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 1–4 with AZ Alkmaar winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Heerenveen trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

AZ Alkmaar trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heerenveen 62% and AZ Alkmaar 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 57% | AZ Alkmaar 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.27 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.079 / defence 1.138 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.997 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.458. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Heerenveen games / 46 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Heerenveen 29% | Draw 24% | AZ Alkmaar 46%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | AZ Alkmaar 2.17. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 80% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights