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Stalemate at GO Ahead Eagles's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 31, as GO Ahead Eagles and AZ Alkmaar drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 2.35 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.13 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 2.3 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.30 / defence 1.01 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 63% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 15%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 61%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.36 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights