Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Waalwijk 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 3-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.82 xG and Waalwijk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waalwijk outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Waalwijk attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 53% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 24%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 55%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Waalwijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Sittard arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights