Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Sittard face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time.
Form
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Fortuna Sittard have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.00 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for NAC Breda and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Fortuna Sittard 1–2 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 59% versus NAC Breda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 59% | NAC Breda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.937 / defence 1.300 | NAC Breda attack 0.713 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.304. NAC Breda's defence rating of 1.216 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Sittard's projected output up. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Fortuna Sittard's defence rating of 1.300 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NAC Breda's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Sittard's last 63 games and NAC Breda's last 63.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 21%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.93 | Draw 3.75 | NAC Breda 4.66. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Sittard's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Sittard 90% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.93 / NAC Breda 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.937 / def 1.300 | NAC Breda attack 0.713 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.21
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 52% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.94x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.71x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Sittard's last 63 games and NAC Breda's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.75
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.13
1.21
NAC Breda xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
3%
32.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.21 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 13D 29L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.90 PPG from 63 outings (13W 18D 32L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 0.90 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 14W 4D 13L across their last 31 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.52 points per game from their last 31 away games (3W 7D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
Fortuna Sittard (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 13W 18D 32L in their last 63 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or NAC Breda away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.48 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 48%, NAC Breda 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Fortuna Sittard) and 58% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; NAC Breda in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 45% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 58% of NAC Breda's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 77% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.21 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against NAC Breda attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 21%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG, NAC Breda 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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