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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Fortuna Sittard 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Fortuna Sittard 1-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.34 xG and Feyenoord 1.58 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Feyenoord attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 29% | Draw 31% | Feyenoord 40%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 58%, Feyenoord 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights