Feyenoord 1-0 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face GO Ahead Eagles.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Feyenoord welcome GO Ahead Eagles to De Kuip in Eredivisie (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Feyenoord are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, GO Ahead Eagles have recorded 0W 7D 3L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
GO Ahead Eagles's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Feyenoord's last 10 home games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Feyenoord: 7 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for GO Ahead Eagles, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Feyenoord 1–2 GO Ahead Eagles — a GO Ahead Eagles win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 7 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 4.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 61% and GO Ahead Eagles 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 62% | GO Ahead Eagles 62%). Note also that GO Ahead Eagles surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.53 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.402 / defence 1.205 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.980 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.449. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack rating of 1.402 — their 2.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Feyenoord's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GO Ahead Eagles's projected output up. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 56 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 56.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 19% | GO Ahead Eagles 26%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.80 | Draw 5.34 | GO Ahead Eagles 3.91. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.53 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 80% (last 10 home games) | GO Ahead Eagles 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 23 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 19% | GO Ahead Eagles 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG Feyenoord 2.53 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.402 / def 1.205 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.980 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.71
GO Ahead Eagles xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Feyenoord 1 - 0 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 56% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 26% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against GO Ahead Eagles's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.53. The same calculation in reverse, GO Ahead Eagles's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 56 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.0%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
56%
1.80
19%
5.34
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
4.24
1.71
GO Ahead Eagles xG
1.80
56%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
8%
12.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
2%
49.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.71 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 33W 11D 12L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
GO Ahead Eagles's form line: 18W 20D 18L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GO Ahead Eagles.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 28 home games (18W 4D 6L).
On the road, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 5W 10D 13L from their last 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GO Ahead Eagles's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.61 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; GO Ahead Eagles in 62%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs GO Ahead Eagles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 33W 11D 12L in their last 56 games (1.96 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 18W 20D 18L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.07 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or GO Ahead Eagles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, GO Ahead Eagles in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2024, when Feyenoord won GO Ahead Eagles 1-5 Feyenoord.
Feyenoord's record when hosting GO Ahead Eagles specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Feyenoord
1
Draws
1
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 8, GO Ahead Eagles have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Feyenoord 2-2 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 64%, GO Ahead Eagles 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Feyenoord and 61% for GO Ahead Eagles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs GO Ahead Eagles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Feyenoord's games and 64% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Feyenoord's matches and 61% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do Feyenoord and GO Ahead Eagles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 79% of GO Ahead Eagles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out GO Ahead Eagles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat GO Ahead Eagles 1-0 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.53 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.71 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Feyenoord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. GO Ahead Eagles landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 1.21 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 56% | Draw 19% | GO Ahead Eagles 26%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, GO Ahead Eagles 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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