Feyenoord vs Cambuur – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Cambuur at De Kuip in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's home record at De Kuip: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Feyenoord: 5 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Cambuur, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 5–2 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 63% and Cambuur 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 60% | Cambuur 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.30 xG and Cambuur 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.056 / defence 1.010 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Feyenoord games / 4 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 24%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 90% | Cambuur 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 56% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Feyenoord 2.30 / Cambuur 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.056 / def 1.010 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Cambuur xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Cambuur kick off?
Feyenoord vs Cambuur is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Cambuur part of?
Feyenoord vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 56% chance of winning, Cambuur a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Feyenoord and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
Record (5 meetings): Feyenoord 5W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Cambuur in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
56%
1.80
21%
4.85
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.78
1.48
Cambuur xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
10%
9.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
2%
41.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.48 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 21W 10D 7L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur's form line: 20W 9D 9L from 38 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feyenoord on 1.92 PPG, Cambuur on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (10W 5D 3L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 9W 4D 5L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.95 scored and 1.63 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Cambuur in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 21W 10D 7L in their last 38 games (1.92 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Cambuur away?
Feyenoord's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 1.94 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
From 5 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 5, Cambuur have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Cambuur 2-5 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Feyenoord at 83%, Cambuur at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 67% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Feyenoord's games and 72% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of Cambuur's.
Do Feyenoord and Cambuur tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.