Cambuur vs Telstar – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Telstar at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Telstar travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 4W 2D 4L at Kooi Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Telstar — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Telstar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Telstar's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Telstar's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Cambuur have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Telstar have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Cambuur winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cambuur and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Telstar trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and Telstar 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 65% | Telstar 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.26 xG and Telstar 3.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.789 / defence 1.710 | Telstar attack 0.950 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Cambuur games / 37 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 12% | Draw 15% | Telstar 73%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 8.33 | Draw 6.67 | Telstar 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 3.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Cambuur dominate the H2H record, yet Telstar are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.32 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | Telstar 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Telstar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 12% | Draw 15% | Telstar 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 69% | xG Cambuur 1.26 / Telstar 3.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.789 / def 1.710 | Telstar attack 0.950 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Telstar (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
3.06
Telstar xG
69%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Telstar kick off?
Cambuur vs Telstar is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Telstar part of?
Cambuur vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 12% chance of winning, Telstar a 73% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Cambuur and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Telstar?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 3W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Telstar in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Telstar (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.79) and Telstar's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 3.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 0-3 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
12%
8.12
15%
6.79
73%
1.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
0 – 3
6.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.32
3.06
Telstar xG
8.12
12%
Home win
6.79
15%
Draw
1.37
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
5%
21.22
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
1%
172.25
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cambuur and 3.06 for Telstar, a combined total of 4.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 20W 8D 9L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Telstar's form line: 10W 10D 17L from 37 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 5W 5D 8L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.41 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Telstar in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Telstar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Telstar in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 20W 8D 9L in their last 37 games (1.84 PPG), while Telstar have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Telstar away?
Cambuur's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.89 PPG; Telstar away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cambuur
1
Draws
0
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Telstar?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Telstar have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Cambuur 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Telstar?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 67%, Telstar 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cambuur) and 50% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 61% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cambuur's matches and 50% of Telstar's.
Do Cambuur and Telstar tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Telstar in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.