Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AZ Alkmaar make the trip to De Kuip to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at De Kuip this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Feyenoord against 1.70 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Feyenoord, who have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against AZ Alkmaar — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 62% and AZ Alkmaar 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 61% | AZ Alkmaar 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.88 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.209 / defence 1.018 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.796 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. Data: 66 Feyenoord games / 66 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 54% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 18%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | AZ Alkmaar 5.56. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 90% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 54% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Feyenoord 1.88 / AZ Alkmaar 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.209 / def 1.018 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.796 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.05
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Feyenoord 1 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 54% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (9 meetings): Feyenoord 7W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.21) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (0.80x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.53
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.92
1.05
AZ Alkmaar xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
3%
36.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.05 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 38W 15D 13L from 66 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 19L across 66 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Feyenoord against 1.62 for AZ Alkmaar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 22W 4D 6L from 32 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AZ Alkmaar's away record stands at 13W 7D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.77 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 38W 15D 13L in their last 66 games (1.95 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 17D 19L in their last 66 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.19 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 66%, AZ Alkmaar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Feyenoord and 62% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Feyenoord's games and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Feyenoord's matches and 62% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 1-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.88 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.05 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.80 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 54% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 18%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 61%, AZ Alkmaar 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 1.95 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.