FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Volendam face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Groningen in Eredivisie (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
In front of their own supporters, FC Volendam have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Volendam are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Groningen have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Groningen have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.10 for Groningen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended FC Volendam 0–3 Groningen — a Groningen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Groningen — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Groningen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 71% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.39 xG and Groningen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.916 / defence 0.956 | Groningen attack 0.873 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.366. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 24 games and Groningen's last 58.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 28% | Groningen 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.39 | Draw 3.56 | Groningen 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 80% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 25 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 42% | Draw 28% | Groningen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG FC Volendam 1.39 / Groningen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.916 / def 0.956 | Groningen attack 0.873 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Groningen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs Groningen FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs Groningen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Groningen?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Groningen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Groningen part of?
FC Volendam vs Groningen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 42% chance of winning, Groningen a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC Volendam and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Volendam vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.92) and Groningen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.87x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 24 games and Groningen's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.56
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
Groningen xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.14 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 31W 10D 17L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 19W 13D 26L from 58 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 29 home games (19W 4D 6L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 7W 4D 18L from their last 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Groningen
Blended
FC Volendam (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ FC Volendam vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and Groningen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 31W 10D 17L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while Groningen have gone 19W 13D 26L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Groningen away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.10 PPG; Groningen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won Groningen 3-0 FC Volendam on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Groningen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 2, Groningen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Groningen?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 69%, Groningen 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for FC Volendam and 52% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and Groningen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC Volendam's games and 55% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Volendam and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of FC Volendam's matches and 52% of Groningen's.
Do FC Volendam and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 72% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Groningen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Groningen 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.39 xG and Groningen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Groningen outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 42% | Draw 28% | Groningen 30%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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