FC Volendam 1-2 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles at 51% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus GO Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie (matchday 34). Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Volendam's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
GO Ahead Eagles's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GO Ahead Eagles's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for FC Volendam, 0.90 for GO Ahead Eagles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, GO Ahead Eagles have the stronger record — 3 wins to FC Volendam's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended FC Volendam 1–4 GO Ahead Eagles — a GO Ahead Eagles win.
The H2H data backs the away side. GO Ahead Eagles have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
GO Ahead Eagles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 63% versus GO Ahead Eagles 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 67% | GO Ahead Eagles 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.95 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.713 / defence 1.499 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.726 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. GO Ahead Eagles bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Volendam's projected output down. GO Ahead Eagles's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.60. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.499 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GO Ahead Eagles's projected output up. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 67 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 67.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 21% | Draw 28% | GO Ahead Eagles 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 4.82 | Draw 3.57 | GO Ahead Eagles 1.95. GO Ahead Eagles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (GO Ahead Eagles 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 40% (last 10 home games) | GO Ahead Eagles 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 34 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 21% | Draw 28% | GO Ahead Eagles 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC Volendam 0.95 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.713 / def 1.499 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.726 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.60
GO Ahead Eagles xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 34) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 21% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.71x the league average against GO Ahead Eagles's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GO Ahead Eagles's attack (0.73x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 67 games and GO Ahead Eagles's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
21%
4.82
28%
3.57
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.55
1.60
GO Ahead Eagles xG
4.82
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
4%
23.99
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.60 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 14W 13D 40L from 67 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
GO Ahead Eagles, meanwhile, have gone 21W 20D 26L across 67 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours GO Ahead Eagles by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 12W 3D 18L from their last 33 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GO Ahead Eagles's away record stands at 7W 10D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.34 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.36 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
GO Ahead Eagles
Current Season
FC Volendam (Home) vs GO Ahead Eagles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Current Season
GO Ahead Eagles
Current Season
❓ FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 13D 40L in their last 67 games (0.82 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 21W 20D 26L in their last 67 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.18 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GO Ahead Eagles won GO Ahead Eagles 3-0 FC Volendam on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
1
Draws
5
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 0, GO Ahead Eagles have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: FC Volendam 1-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 61%, GO Ahead Eagles 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (FC Volendam) and 42% (GO Ahead Eagles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 27% of games; GO Ahead Eagles in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Volendam's games and 52% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 42% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 73% of GO Ahead Eagles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GO Ahead Eagles edge out FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.95 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.60 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.71 / defence 1.50 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.73 / defence 0.77, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 21% | Draw 28% | GO Ahead Eagles 51%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, GO Ahead Eagles 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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