Heracles 0-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as Heracles welcome Fortuna Sittard to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Heracles at Erve Asito this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Heracles) versus 1.00 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Heracles, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 1–4 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus Fortuna Sittard 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 72% | Fortuna Sittard 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.90 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.888 / defence 1.407 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.701 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Heracles games / 67 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 28%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 3.57. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. This conflicts with form data: Heracles 40% | Fortuna Sittard 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 47% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Heracles 1.90 / Fortuna Sittard 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.888 / def 1.407 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.701 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Heracles (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Fortuna Sittard xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles 0 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 47% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.04
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.35
1.45
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
4%
23.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Heracles and 1.45 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 33W 8D 26L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 19W 16D 32L from 67 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Heracles are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.97 PPG from 33 outings (20W 5D 8L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 7W 6D 20L from 33 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.13 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 33W 8D 26L in their last 67 games (1.60 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 16D 32L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Heracles's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.97 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
3
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 52%, Fortuna Sittard 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Heracles and 70% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Heracles's recent matches and 52% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Heracles's matches and 70% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Heracles and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heracles's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 34, as Heracles and Fortuna Sittard drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.90 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.45 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.89 / defence 1.41 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.70 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 47% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 28%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 72%, Fortuna Sittard 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.