De Graafschap 4-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as De Graafschap welcome FC Volendam to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 2 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 62% and FC Volendam 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.09 xG and FC Volendam 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.109 / defence 0.944 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.359. Data: 38 De Graafschap games / 0 FC Volendam games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 59% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 17%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 5.88. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 59% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG De Graafschap 2.09 / FC Volendam 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.109 / def 0.944 | FC Volendam attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.09
FC Volendam xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Volendam kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
De Graafschap 4 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 59% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.15
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.18
1.09
FC Volendam xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
2%
46.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.09 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 16W 6D 12L from 34 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. De Graafschap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 23L across 34 games — 0.56 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. FC Volendam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 1W 5D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.00 scored and 2.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
FC Volendam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 16W 6D 12L in their last 34 games (1.59 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 4W 7D 23L in their last 34 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Volendam away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.94 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2021, when FC Volendam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 59%, FC Volendam at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for De Graafschap and 65% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of De Graafschap's games and 76% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of De Graafschap's matches and 65% of FC Volendam's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Volendam tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC Volendam 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Volendam 4-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.09 xG and FC Volendam 1.09 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 59% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 17%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.56. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.