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Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.98 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.50 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 48% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 28%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights