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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat Utrecht 5-0 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 0.95 xG and Utrecht 1.76 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.63 / defence 1.20 against Utrecht attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 17% | Draw 30% | Utrecht 53%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 58%, Utrecht 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.48 PPG, Utrecht 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights