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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Excelsior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat Excelsior 0-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.09 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.19 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.68 / defence 1.18 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.40 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 17% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 61%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 59%, NEC Nijmegen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.54 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights