Almere City FC 0-5 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Almere City FC welcome Heracles to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Heracles — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 1.30 PPG versus Heracles's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 0 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Heracles trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 56% versus Heracles 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 46% | Heracles 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.62 xG and Heracles 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.655 / defence 1.150 | Heracles attack 0.728 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.418. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Almere City FC games / 12 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 29% | Heracles 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Heracles 3.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 29% | Heracles 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Almere City FC 1.62 / Heracles 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.655 / def 1.150 | Heracles attack 0.728 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.740 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Heracles xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Heracles kick off?
Almere City FC vs Heracles kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Almere City FC 0 - 5 Heracles.
Where is Almere City FC vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Heracles part of?
Almere City FC vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 45% chance of winning, Heracles a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Almere City FC and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | Heracles 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.66x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.42
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.19
Heracles xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.19 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 25W 13D 12L from 50 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 30W 7D 13L across 50 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.76 PPG, Heracles on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 11W 7D 7L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 12W 3D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.36 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while Heracles have gone 30W 7D 13L in their last 50 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Heracles away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Heracles away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Heracles in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Heracles won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
3
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Heracles have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Almere City FC 0-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 64%, Heracles 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Almere City FC and 80% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Almere City FC's games and 56% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Almere City FC's matches and 80% of Heracles's.
Do Almere City FC and Heracles tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Heracles in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Almere City FC 0-5 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.62 xG and Heracles 1.19 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Heracles outscored their 1.19 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.15 against Heracles attack 0.73 / defence 1.42, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 45% | Draw 29% | Heracles 26%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 46%, Heracles 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Heracles's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.76 PPG, Heracles 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.