Excelsior 7-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Excelsior at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Excelsior face ADO Den Haag.

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Full Analysis

Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus ADO Den Haag in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Excelsior have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Excelsior have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

ADO Den Haag's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Excelsior, 1.30 for ADO Den Haag — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Excelsior edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2024, ended Excelsior 2–1 ADO Den Haag — a Excelsior win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 61% and ADO Den Haag 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 76% | ADO Den Haag 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.91 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.964 / defence 0.965 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.485. Data: built from Excelsior's last 68 games and ADO Den Haag's last 0.

Result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 23%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.92 | Draw 3.92 | ADO Den Haag 4.44. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Excelsior 40% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 60% (last 10 away games).

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