De Graafschap 2-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as De Graafschap face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host ADO Den Haag at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, ADO Den Haag have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, ADO Den Haag have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.30 PPG versus ADO Den Haag's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, De Graafschap have won 0, ADO Den Haag 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Jan 2024, ended De Graafschap 3–5 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus ADO Den Haag 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | ADO Den Haag 60%). Note also that ADO Den Haag surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while De Graafschap recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.69 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 0 games and ADO Den Haag's last 0.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.37 | Draw 3.80 | ADO Den Haag 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 20% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG De Graafschap 1.69 / ADO Den Haag 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.44
ADO Den Haag xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
De Graafschap 2 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag part of?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag is a Eredivisie fixture (Relegation Round) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.85) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 0 games and ADO Den Haag's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.80
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.12
1.44
ADO Den Haag xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.44 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 7D 16L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (13W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.37 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 10W 2D 7L across their last 19 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 19 away games (7W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.34 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 63%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
ADO Den Haag
Pre-Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
ADO Den Haag
Pre-Season
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 15W 7D 16L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 13W 12D 13L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or ADO Den Haag away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.68 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.42 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
ADO Den Haag have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
De Graafschap's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
3
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 42%, ADO Den Haag 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (De Graafschap) and 47% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 32%; ADO Den Haag in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of De Graafschap's recent games and 47% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 68% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 2-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.69 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.44 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, ADO Den Haag 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.37 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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