Emmen 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees De Graafschap travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.70 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Emmen, 1 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
De Graafschap trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus De Graafschap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 59% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.65 xG and De Graafschap 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.957 / defence 1.085 | De Graafschap attack 1.035 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.364. Data: 37 Emmen games / 75 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 34%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 40% | De Graafschap 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 39% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Emmen 1.65 / De Graafschap 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.957 / def 1.085 | De Graafschap attack 1.035 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Emmen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.53
De Graafschap xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs De Graafschap kick off?
Emmen vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Emmen 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Emmen vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs De Graafschap part of?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 39% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Emmen and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.96x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.78
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.19
1.53
De Graafschap xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Emmen and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Emmen and 1.53 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 24W 16D 35L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 34W 13D 28L from 75 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.17 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (13W 11D 13L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 13W 7D 17L from 37 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.65 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 24W 16D 35L in their last 75 games (1.17 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 34W 13D 28L in their last 75 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or De Graafschap away?
Emmen's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.35 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 43%, De Graafschap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Emmen) and 70% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Emmen's recent matches and 65% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Emmen's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do Emmen and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat De Graafschap 2-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.65 xG and De Graafschap 1.53 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against De Graafschap attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 39% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 34%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 59%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.17 PPG, De Graafschap 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.