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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 1-5 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat AZ Alkmaar 1-5 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.03 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.40 xG, a combined 4.43. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.33 / defence 1.00 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.65 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 47%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, PSV Eindhoven 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights