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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.23 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 55% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 25%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, PEC Zwolle 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights