AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Stadion this season.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (2.40 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, PEC Zwolle in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours AZ Alkmaar, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against PEC Zwolle — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AZ Alkmaar and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 64% versus PEC Zwolle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 67% | PEC Zwolle 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.23 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.288 / defence 1.028 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.995 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.438. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 AZ Alkmaar games / 39 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 55% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 25%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | PEC Zwolle 4.00. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 70% | PEC Zwolle 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 55% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.23 / PEC Zwolle 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.288 / def 1.028 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.995 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 24 September 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 55% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
Record (6 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 4W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.29x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.99x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
55%
1.83
20%
4.94
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.70
1.47
PEC Zwolle xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
3%
36.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.47 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 39 games, going 19W 11D 9L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.21 PPG from 39 outings (12W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 9W 5D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.21 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 19W 11D 9L in their last 39 games (1.74 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or PEC Zwolle away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.68 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 68%, PEC Zwolle 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (AZ Alkmaar) and 47% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 58% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 47% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.23 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.47 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 55% | Draw 20% | PEC Zwolle 25%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, PEC Zwolle 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.