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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AZ Alkmaar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat AZ Alkmaar 1-3 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.92 xG and NEC Nijmegen 2.20 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 2.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.36 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 35% | Draw 20% | NEC Nijmegen 45%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, NEC Nijmegen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.65 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights