🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.45 xG and Excelsior 1.35 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Excelsior attack 0.82 / defence 1.34, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 20%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Excelsior 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.69 PPG, Excelsior 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights