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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as AZ Alkmaar welcome Excelsior to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 21 January 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Excelsior — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — AZ Alkmaar at 1.30 PPG versus Excelsior's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for AZ Alkmaar, 1 for Excelsior and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

AZ Alkmaar trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Excelsior trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 63% versus Excelsior 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 65% | Excelsior 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.45 xG and Excelsior 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.080 / defence 1.123 | Excelsior attack 0.822 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.467. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 AZ Alkmaar games / 18 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 61% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 20%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Excelsior 5.00. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.45 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 90% | Excelsior 80% BTTS from recent games.

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