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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against Almere City FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Almere City FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights