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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 1-1 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.04 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.62 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ajax fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.37 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajax 48% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 31%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 58%, NEC Nijmegen 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajax's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights