ADO Den Haag 1-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bingoal Stadion plays host to ADO Den Haag versus Excelsior in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). Kick-off: Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 18:45 UK time.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, ADO Den Haag have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in ADO Den Haag's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Excelsior's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of ADO Den Haag's games and 70% of Excelsior's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2022, ended ADO Den Haag 4–4 Excelsior — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 65% and Excelsior 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 62% | Excelsior 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Excelsior attack 0.849 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.485. Excelsior's defence rating of 1.443 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ADO Den Haag's projected output up. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 0 games and Excelsior's last 68.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 52% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 25%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.94 | Draw 4.22 | Excelsior 4.03. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and Excelsior's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 90% (last 10 home games) | Excelsior 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 52% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG ADO Den Haag 2.12 / Excelsior 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Excelsior attack 0.849 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Excelsior xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior is a Eredivisie fixture (Relegation Round) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 52% chance of winning, Excelsior a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Excelsior will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (0.85) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.85x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 0 games and Excelsior's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.22
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.57
1.45
Excelsior xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
3%
33.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.45 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 13D 13L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Excelsior's form line: 8W 13D 19L from 40 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 20 home games (6W 7D 7L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 2W 6D 12L from their last 20 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.42 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Excelsior in 60%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Excelsior
Current Season
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs Excelsior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 8W 13D 19L in their last 40 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Excelsior away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.25 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Excelsior have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won Excelsior 7-1 ADO Den Haag on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
5
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 1, Excelsior have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Excelsior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2025: Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for ADO Den Haag, 65% for Excelsior — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for ADO Den Haag and 85% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and Excelsior matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ADO Den Haag's games and 65% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 85% of Excelsior's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Excelsior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 75% of Excelsior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 1-2 at Bingoal Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.45 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.44, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 52% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 25%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 62%, Excelsior 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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