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Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Waalwijk 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.27 xG and Waalwijk 1.42 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 0.89 against Waalwijk attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 39%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 54%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.03 PPG, Waalwijk 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights