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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Willem II and MVV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Willem II and MVV drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.25 xG and MVV 0.97 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. MVV outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.68 / defence 0.96 against MVV attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 43% | Draw 29% | MVV 29%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, MVV 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

MVV's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.00 PPG, MVV 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights