🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Willem II at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs MVV encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees MVV travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Willem II — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, MVV have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.

MVV's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Willem II are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Willem II, 1 for MVV and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Willem II in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

MVV in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 60% versus MVV 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | MVV 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.25 xG and MVV 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.676 / defence 0.963 | MVV attack 0.734 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.368. Willem II's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Willem II games / 50 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 29% | MVV 29%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | MVV 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 70% | MVV 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights