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Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 13

Kick-off

Sun 26 Oct 2025

13:30

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

43%

Willem II

2.33

29%

Draw

3.50

29%

MVV

3.50

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

0 – 0

10.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.25

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.22

0.97

MVV xG

43%
29%
29%
Willem IIDrawMVV

2.33

43%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

3.50

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.26

56%

BTTS No

1.80

Clean Sheet

38%

Willem II

2.63

29%

MVV

3.51

Win to Nil

16%

Willem II

6.14

8%

MVV

12.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.8 10.5 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
1 13.6 13.2 6.4 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 8.5 8.3 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 3.6 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.255
λ Away (xG) 0.968
Total xG 2.223
League avg home goals 1.769
League avg away goals 1.368
Willem II attack strength 0.676
Willem II defence strength 0.963
MVV attack strength 0.734
MVV defence strength 1.050
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 12 / 50