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Willem II and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Willem II and Emmen drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.31 xG and Emmen 1.30 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 37% | Draw 26% | Emmen 37%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights