Willem II 4-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and De Graafschap meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Willem II 2W, De Graafschap 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 61% versus De Graafschap 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 61% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.62 xG and De Graafschap 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.099 / defence 1.004 | De Graafschap attack 1.117 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.391. Data: 46 Willem II games / 46 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Willem II 1.62 / De Graafschap 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.099 / def 1.004 | De Graafschap attack 1.117 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.56
De Graafschap xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs De Graafschap kick off?
Willem II vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Willem II 4 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Willem II vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs De Graafschap part of?
Willem II vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 40% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Willem II and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Willem II and De Graafschap in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.10x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.12x) against Willem II's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.26
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.18
1.56
De Graafschap xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Willem II and 1.56 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 46 games, going 23W 13D 10L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.43 PPG from 46 outings (19W 9D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Willem II against 1.43 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 16W 2D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.59 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 23W 13D 10L in their last 46 games (1.78 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or De Graafschap away?
Willem II's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.17 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Willem II or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-3 on 16 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Willem II
1
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and De Graafschap?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 4, De Graafschap have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Willem II, 70% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Willem II and 74% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Willem II's games and 70% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Willem II's matches and 74% of De Graafschap's.
Do Willem II and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat De Graafschap 4-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.62 xG and De Graafschap 1.56 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 61%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.78 PPG, De Graafschap 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.