Willem II 4-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Willem II at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and De Graafschap meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Willem II are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Willem II's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Willem II edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Willem II 3–2 De Graafschap — a Willem II win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 61% versus De Graafschap 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 61% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.62 xG and De Graafschap 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.099 / defence 1.004 | De Graafschap attack 1.117 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.391. Data: built from Willem II's last 46 games and De Graafschap's last 46.
Result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.53 | Draw 4.26 | De Graafschap 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 60% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 9 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Willem II 1.62 / De Graafschap 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.099 / def 1.004 | De Graafschap attack 1.117 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.56
De Graafschap xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Willem II vs De Graafschap kick off?
Willem II vs De Graafschap kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 6 October 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Willem II 4 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Willem II vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs De Graafschap part of?
Willem II vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 9) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 40% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Willem II and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Willem II vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 1.10x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.12x) against Willem II's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 46 games and De Graafschap's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.26
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.18
1.56
De Graafschap xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Willem II and 1.56 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 46 games, going 23W 13D 10L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.43 PPG from 46 outings (19W 9D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Willem II against 1.43 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 16W 2D 5L across their last 23 home games, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 23 away games (8W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.59 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 23W 13D 10L in their last 46 games (1.78 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or De Graafschap away?
Willem II's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.17 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Willem II or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won De Graafschap 0-3 Willem II on 16 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Willem II
1
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 4, De Graafschap have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Willem II and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and De Graafschap?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Willem II, 70% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Willem II and 74% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Willem II's games and 70% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Willem II's matches and 74% of De Graafschap's.
Do Willem II and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Willem II's recent matches and 87% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat De Graafschap 4-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.62 xG and De Graafschap 1.56 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 40% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 37%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 61%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.78 PPG, De Graafschap 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 9
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →