De Graafschap 0-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Roda at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.90 PPG versus Roda's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 1, Roda 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Roda in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 56% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Roda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.18 xG and Roda 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.835 / defence 0.821 | Roda attack 1.105 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.295. Data: 45 De Graafschap games / 45 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 28% | Roda 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 30% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 28% | Roda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG De Graafschap 1.18 / Roda 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.835 / def 0.821 | Roda attack 1.105 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Roda xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Roda kick off?
De Graafschap vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
De Graafschap 0 - 0 Roda.
Where is De Graafschap vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Roda part of?
De Graafschap vs Roda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 36% chance of winning, Roda a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both De Graafschap and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Roda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.58
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.36
1.17
Roda xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.17 for Roda, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 8D 18L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (18W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.44 PPG, Roda on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 11W 3D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (7W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.51 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Roda have gone 18W 7D 20L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Roda away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.64 PPG; Roda away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 41%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (De Graafschap) and 54% (Roda).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 27% of games; Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 50% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of De Graafschap's recent games and 54% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Roda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Roda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 8, as De Graafschap and Roda drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.18 xG and Roda 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against Roda attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 36% | Draw 28% | Roda 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Roda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.44 PPG, Roda 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.