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Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Almere City FC 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.35 xG and Almere City FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.74 / defence 0.77 against Almere City FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 36% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 38%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Almere City FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.22 PPG, Almere City FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights