Willem II 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face Almere City FC.

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Analysis

Almere City FC make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Willem II have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Willem II's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Almere City FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Almere City FC away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Willem II against 1.60 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2025, ended Willem II 1–0 Almere City FC — a Willem II win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Willem II — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 56% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Almere City FC 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.35 xG and Almere City FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.743 / defence 0.770 | Almere City FC attack 1.220 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.471. Willem II's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Almere City FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.220, which lifts their away xG to 1.38. Willem II have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Almere City FC's projected output down. Data: built from Willem II's last 35 games and Almere City FC's last 35.

Result probabilities: Willem II 36% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.75 | Draw 3.90 | Almere City FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 40% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 90% (last 10 away games).

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