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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Willem II attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Willem II 36%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 64%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.91 PPG, Willem II 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights