Waalwijk 2-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 17 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Waalwijk, 1.70 for Willem II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Waalwijk 1W, Willem II 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 61% and Willem II 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 64% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.806 / defence 1.017 | Willem II attack 0.934 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.753 / away 1.386. Data: 10 Waalwijk games / 10 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Willem II 36%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Willem II 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Willem II 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Willem II 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Waalwijk 1.37 / Willem II 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.806 / def 1.017 | Willem II attack 0.934 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.753 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Willem II xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Willem II kick off?
Waalwijk vs Willem II kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Waalwijk 2 - 3 Willem II.
Where is Waalwijk vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Willem II part of?
Waalwijk vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 38% chance of winning, Willem II a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Waalwijk and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 3W.
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.81x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.93x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.86
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.69
1.31
Willem II xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.31 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 10D 24L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 0.95 PPG from 44 outings (11W 9D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.95 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Waalwijk's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.09 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 10W 10D 24L in their last 44 games (0.91 PPG), while Willem II have gone 11W 9D 24L in their last 44 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Willem II away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.18 PPG; Willem II away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
1
Draws
6
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Willem II have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 54%, Willem II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Waalwijk) and 46% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games; Willem II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Waalwijk's games and 59% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Waalwijk's recent games and 46% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Willem II tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Willem II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.31 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Willem II attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Willem II 36%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 64%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.91 PPG, Willem II 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.