Waalwijk 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waalwijk welcome Roda to Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie (Round of 16). Kick-off is Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Waalwijk stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Waalwijk have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Roda away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Waalwijk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Roda and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2026, ended Waalwijk 1–1 Roda — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Roda trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 34%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 68% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 68% | Roda 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waalwijk surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Roda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 34% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.69 xG and Roda 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.206 / defence 1.025 | Roda attack 1.132 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.422. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 38 games and Roda's last 76.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Roda 38%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.53 | Draw 4.37 | Roda 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 80% (last 10 home games) | Roda 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Round of 16 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Roda 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Waalwijk 1.69 / Roda 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.206 / def 1.025 | Roda attack 1.132 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Roda xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Roda FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Roda kick off?
Waalwijk vs Roda kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Waalwijk vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Roda part of?
Waalwijk vs Roda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (Round of 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Waalwijk and Roda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.21) and Roda's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 38 games and Roda's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.53
23%
4.37
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.34
1.65
Roda xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Roda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.65 for Roda, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 22W 18D 33L from 73 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 24L across 73 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.15 PPG, Roda on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 14W 7D 15L from their last 36 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 14W 10D 12L across their last 36 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.45 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
Waalwijk (Home) vs Roda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Waalwijk vs Roda Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 22W 18D 33L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Roda have gone 27W 22D 24L in their last 73 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.36 PPG; Roda away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2025. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won Roda 1-4 Waalwijk.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Roda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Roda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Roda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Roda 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 64%, Roda at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Waalwijk and 69% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Roda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Roda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 69% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Roda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Waalwijk's matches and 69% of Roda's.
Do Waalwijk and Roda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 83% of Roda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Round of 16, as Waalwijk and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.69 xG and Roda 1.65 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Roda attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Roda 38%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 68%, Roda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.15 PPG, Roda 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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