🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Waalwijk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.39 xG and Roda 1.76 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Roda attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Roda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.03 PPG, Roda 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights