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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.56 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.81 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Jong Utrecht attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 33% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 44%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Jong Utrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.02 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights