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Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Jong AZ 2.11 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Jong AZ attack 1.30 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 28% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 50%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.08 PPG, Jong AZ 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights