Waalwijk vs FC OSS Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waalwijk's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC OSS have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.10 for FC OSS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for FC OSS and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2026, ended Waalwijk 1–1 FC OSS — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 79% and FC OSS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 62% | FC OSS 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waalwijk surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while FC OSS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC OSS surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Waalwijk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.02 xG and FC OSS 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.152 / defence 0.972 | FC OSS attack 0.610 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.586. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 52 games and FC OSS's last 52.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 62% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 16%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.62 | Draw 4.48 | FC OSS 6.22. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and FC OSS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 90% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 31 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 62% | Draw 22% | FC OSS 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Waalwijk 2.02 / FC OSS 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.152 / def 0.972 | FC OSS attack 0.610 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.586 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC OSS xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs FC OSS kick off?
Waalwijk vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 19 March 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs FC OSS part of?
Waalwijk vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 62% chance of winning, FC OSS a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waalwijk and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.15) and FC OSS's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.61x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 52 games and FC OSS's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.48
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.96
0.94
FC OSS xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
46.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.94 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 20D 15L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.12 PPG from 52 outings (15W 13D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.12 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Waalwijk's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.42 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; FC OSS in 65%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 13D 24L in their last 52 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or FC OSS away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.46 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Waalwijk and FC OSS, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC OSS?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 1, FC OSS have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: FC OSS 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and FC OSS?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Waalwijk, 58% for FC OSS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Waalwijk) and 42% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and FC OSS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Waalwijk's games and 58% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Waalwijk's matches and 42% of FC OSS's.
Do Waalwijk and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 58% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 31
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →