Almere City FC vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Almere City FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almere City FC face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Almere City FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Dordrecht (2.10 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Almere City FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Dordrecht winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Almere City FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 63% and Dordrecht 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 71% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.69 xG and Dordrecht 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.870 / defence 0.638 | Dordrecht attack 0.820 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.638 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Almere City FC games / 49 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 17%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 40% | Dordrecht 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Almere City FC 1.69 / Dordrecht 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.870 / def 0.638 | Dordrecht attack 0.820 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dordrecht xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Dordrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 59% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Almere City FC and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.82x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.19
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.45
0.76
Dordrecht xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
32.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.76 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 26W 6D 17L from 49 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 21L across 49 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 15W 3D 6L from 24 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.27 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 26W 6D 17L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Dordrecht away?
Almere City FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 25 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
From 7 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Dordrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2026, when Dordrecht 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 67% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 67% of Dordrecht's.
Do Almere City FC and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.