Almere City FC vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Almere City FC (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almere City FC face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Almere City FC. A 0.90 PPG lead over Dordrecht (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dordrecht in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Almere City FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Almere City FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Almere City FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 67% and Dordrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.25 xG and Dordrecht 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / defence 0.879 | Dordrecht attack 0.901 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Almere City FC games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 58% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 22%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Dordrecht 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 58% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Almere City FC 2.25 / Dordrecht 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / def 0.879 | Dordrecht attack 0.901 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.702 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Dordrecht xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Dordrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 58% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Almere City FC and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.90x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
58%
1.73
20%
5.02
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.60
1.35
Dordrecht xG
1.73
58%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
11%
9.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
2%
42.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.35 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 22W 6D 15L from 43 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 18L across 43 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 12W 3D 6L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 7D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.30 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Dordrecht away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Dordrecht have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Almere City FC 4-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 57%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Almere City FC and 67% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Almere City FC's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Almere City FC's matches and 67% of Dordrecht's.
Do Almere City FC and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.