Den Bosch vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Heracles (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face Heracles.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host Heracles at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch at De Vliert this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Heracles — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heracles are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Heracles, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Den Bosch.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Heracles winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Heracles have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 76% and Heracles 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 64% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.80 xG and Heracles 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.978 / defence 1.137 | Heracles attack 1.363 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Den Bosch games / 10 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 32% | Draw 20% | Heracles 48%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.12 | Draw 5.00 | Heracles 2.08. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 100% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 32% | Draw 20% | Heracles 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG Den Bosch 1.80 / Heracles 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.978 / def 1.137 | Heracles attack 1.363 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Heracles (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Heracles xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Heracles kick off?
Den Bosch vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Heracles part of?
Den Bosch vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 32% chance of winning, Heracles a 48% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Den Bosch and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Heracles?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Heracles in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
32%
3.13
20%
4.94
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
4.03
2.22
Heracles xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.92
Clean Sheet
11%
9.22
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
3%
28.87
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Den Bosch and 2.22 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 15W 10D 20L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 14W 5D 26L from 45 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.22 PPG, Heracles on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 5W 2D 16L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.58 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Heracles in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 5D 26L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Heracles away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.48 PPG; Heracles away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Heracles runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Heracles go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Den Bosch
0
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Heracles?
From 3 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 0, Heracles have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Heracles 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 83%, Heracles at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Den Bosch and 78% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Den Bosch's games and 56% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Den Bosch's matches and 78% of Heracles's.
Do Den Bosch and Heracles tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Heracles in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.