Den Bosch vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Heracles (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face Heracles.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host Heracles at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch at De Vliert this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Heracles — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heracles are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Heracles, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Den Bosch.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Heracles winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Heracles have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (38 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (38 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 79% and Heracles 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 68% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.06 xG and Heracles 2.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.139 / defence 1.108 | Heracles attack 1.568 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.568 — the away xG of 2.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Den Bosch games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 26% | Draw 17% | Heracles 57%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.85 | Draw 5.88 | Heracles 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 88% | BTTS probability 83% | Total xG 5.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 88% — a total xG of 5.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 83% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 2.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 5.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 88% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 83%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 26% | Draw 17% | Heracles 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 88% | BTTS 83% | xG Den Bosch 2.06 / Heracles 2.95 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.139 / def 1.108 | Heracles attack 1.568 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Heracles (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
2.95
Heracles xG
83%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Heracles kick off?
Den Bosch vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Heracles part of?
Den Bosch vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 26% chance of winning, Heracles a 57% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 83% probability that both Den Bosch and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 88%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Heracles?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Heracles in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 2.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 6.2%. Close behind: 2-3 (6.1%), 1-2 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
26%
3.80
17%
5.85
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 3
6.1%
Away win
1 – 2
6.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
5.00
2.95
Heracles xG
3.80
26%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
88%
Over 2.5
1.14
12%
Under 2.5
8.33
74%
Over 3.5
1.35
26%
Under 3.5
3.85
56%
Over 4.5
1.79
44%
Under 4.5
2.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
83%
BTTS Yes
1.21
17%
BTTS No
5.76
Clean Sheet
5%
19.07
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
1%
72.47
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Den Bosch and 2.95 for Heracles, a combined total of 5.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 9D 17L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles's form line: 9W 4D 25L from 38 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.18 PPG, Heracles on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 1D 15L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.34 scored and 2.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Heracles in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Heracles away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.35 PPG; Heracles away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Heracles runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Heracles go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Den Bosch
0
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Heracles?
From 3 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 0, Heracles have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Heracles 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 80%, Heracles at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Den Bosch and 80% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Den Bosch's games and 55% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Den Bosch's matches and 80% of Heracles's.
Do Den Bosch and Heracles tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Heracles in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.