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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Vitesse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.01 xG and Willem II 1.17 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Willem II attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 57% | Draw 21% | Willem II 22%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 66%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.17 PPG, Willem II 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights