Vitesse 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Willem II travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at GelreDome, Vitesse have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Vitesse are significantly better at GelreDome than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Willem II have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitesse 1.30 PPG, Willem II 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Vitesse have won 0, Willem II 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Willem II in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 58% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 66% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 2.01 xG and Willem II 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 1.120 / defence 0.972 | Willem II attack 0.876 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.373. Data: 41 Vitesse games / 7 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 57% | Draw 21% | Willem II 22%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Willem II 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Vitesse (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 40% | Willem II 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 57% | Draw 21% | Willem II 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Vitesse 2.01 / Willem II 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 1.120 / def 0.972 | Willem II attack 0.876 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.740 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Willem II kick off?
Vitesse vs Willem II kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Willem II?
Vitesse 1 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Vitesse vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Willem II part of?
Vitesse vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 57% chance of winning, Willem II a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vitesse and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 2W.
What form are Vitesse and Willem II in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 1.12x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.66
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.18
1.17
Willem II xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
3%
34.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.17 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 12D 17L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 0.88 PPG from 41 outings (9W 9D 23L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.17 PPG, Willem II on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vitesse's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Willem II in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Willem II have gone 9W 9D 23L in their last 41 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Willem II away?
Vitesse's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.45 PPG; Willem II away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Willem II won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vitesse
0
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Willem II have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 60%, Willem II 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Vitesse) and 40% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Vitesse's games and 55% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Vitesse's recent games and 40% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Willem II tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Willem II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Vitesse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.01 xG and Willem II 1.17 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Willem II attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 57% | Draw 21% | Willem II 22%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 66%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.17 PPG, Willem II 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.